The "knowns and unknowns matrix" is clunky when said out loud. But it is a useful tool to proactively identify surprises, as well as to find capability gaps in your intelligence organisation.
While this matrix was popularised in 2002 by Donald Rumsfeld, when the former US Secretary of Defense responded to a question about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, it has been around the 1950s in leadership, business, and project management. The common thread amongst the different usages is that it frames our understanding of uncertainty, and subsequently helps to identify blind spots. In a leadership context (illustrated below), the Johari window identifies traits unknown to the leader – both strengths and weaknesses – which can help in their personal and professional development.
In an intelligence context it links analysis, collection, and priorities in a way that is proactive about uncovering surprise. It is a useful prompt to consider the level of confidence in our intelligence assessments and collection posture. Furthermore, it assists with the deliberate consideration of blind spots. It can be used by team leaders looking across multiple priorities, as well as by individual analysts assessing one problem in detail. The below table shows how to categorise intelligence problems, and what actions can be taken next.
Aside from a structured approach to areas of potential surprise, this model demonstrates other takeaways for an intelligence leader:
The importance of Collection and Requirements Management (CRM). Competent CRM is the function that links collection to analysis at the working level. The above matrix demonstrates that CRM teams have to have a good understanding of intelligence gaps in order to prioritise collection effort and provide confidence in collection posture.
Structured review of assessments. The external environment is dynamic, so even high confidence assessments should be subject to regular reviews over time. Subject matter experts are important, but leaders and peers should be encouraged to contribute to analytical sessions and to question key assessments to see what's backing them up - analysis is a team sport.
Areas to improve the performance of an intelligence system. The matrix may highlight areas were organisational development is needed to shed light on unknowns without the constant intervention of a senior leader. This development could be at an individual or capability level, such as new analytical techniques, greater prioritisation, and a better way to understand what your organisation already knows, through a debriefing programme or usable databases.
To ensure a deliberate approach to uncovering potential intelligence gaps and surprises, the knowns and unknowns matrix is a useful tool. It not only categorises intelligence assessments and levels of confidence, but helps to direct collection efforts, making it additionally relevant to identifying strengths and areas for development in the overall intelligence team.
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